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Colheita com trator verde

BR Grain Output

by Sérgio Granato de Araújo

 

Grain Production – 2024/2025 Harvest [CONAB, 2025]

  

Brazil’s grain production for the 2024/2025 harvest reached a record 350.2 Mt, with soybeans & corn standing out.  Soybean production totaled 171.41 Mt, while corn reached 139.47 Mt, of which 80% came from the second crop (around 112 Mt).  This grain production represents a CAGR of 8% over the past three years.  Overall, Brazil’s total agricultural production, encompassing both grains and other crops (such as sugarcane, fruits, coffee & cotton), reached around 1.2 Gt.

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Rice, wheat, cotton & beans

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Rice national production reached 12.75 Mt, with 70% coming from Rio Grande do Sul (RS) state, while wheat totaled 7.5 Mt.  Cotton beans production amounted to 4.06 3.07 Mt, resp.  Soybeans, corn, and rice together account for roughly 90% of the country’s total grain prod., with Cerrado region (mainly MT & GO) contributing a growing share of soybeans & corn, supporting domestic supply & exports.

Grain storage

  

Total installed storage capacity of grain storage stood at around 217 Mt in 2025, covering only about 61% of the country’s annual grain output, which exceeds 354 MT.  This results in a structural storage deficit of more than 137 Mt, creating a major logistical bottleneck, notably during peak harvest periods (soybean: Jan-Mar & 2nd-crop corn: Jun-Aug).  The shortage forces rapid commercialization, intensifies transport congestion, increases freight costs, and contributes to post-harvest losses, reducing producers’ margins & supply chain efficiency.  Figure 1 shows grain production vs static storage capacity in Brazil.

LogoMakr-5mMfMv.png

 Figure 1: Grain Production vs Static Storage Capacity in Brazil

cap gr v4.png

BR’s crop expansion outlook

Brazil’s agricultural growth since the 2000s has been largely driven by pastureland conversion, mainly in the Cerrado, consolidating the country as a global leader in commodity crops.  Pasture degradation refers primarily to the condition of grasses rather than to intrinsic soil productivity and is typically associated with overgrazing, insufficient soil fertilization, and limited weed & pest control.  As degraded pastures occur nationwide, Brazil retains substantial and geographically diversified expansion potential.

  

According to Embrapa, up to 28.3 Mha (70 million acres) of pastureland could be converted to crops without deforestation, equivalent to a 35% expansion of current cultivated area [FDD, 2024], while a third annual crop is economically viable mainly under irrigation due to climatic constraints.  Figure 2 shows crop expansion potential on degraded pastureland in Brazil, highlighting MT & GO as leaders.

 Figure 2: Crop expansion potential over degraded pastureland in BR

exp agri BR - v3.png

Harvest forecast

CONAB projects that Brazil will harvest a record grain crop in 2025/26, estimated at around 354 Mt, setting a new historical record.  Production is primarily driven by soybeans, expected to reach 178 Mt, and a historic record in coffee, surpassing 66 million bags.  Together, these figures underscore Brazil’s strategic role in global food supply and highlight increasing pressures on logistics, storage, and export infrastructure, as rising production volumes demand expanded transport capacity, larger storage facilities, and more efficient coordination across road, rail, and port networks.

Fig 1 estat
Fig 2:: crop expansio
Crop Exp
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