Panorama Nuclear

by Sérgio Granato de Araújo

  

Energy crisis and data-center growth give life extension to nuclear. As the drive to slow climate change intensifies, there is growing recognition that the pathway to net zero will be faster and easier if nuclear energy is part of the solution [SPG, 2023].  At the same time, the rapid expansion of AI, cloud computing, and data centers is creating a new source of large, concentrated and increasingly round-the-clock electricity demand, strengthening the case for reliable low-carbon generation.  Together, energy-security concerns, the need for firm low-carbon power, and the accelerating electricity demand from data centers are reinforcing the strategic role of nuclear energy.  Key insights into the nuclear sector include:

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1. Current Global Nuclear Landscape

• Installed Base: the operational fleet of ~413–417 reactors delivers ~376–379 GWe of net capacity, supplying 8.4–9.0% of global electricity [IAEA, 2026].

• Western Baseload: historically, the U.S. (~20% of its grid and half of its clean power) and France (~70% of its generation) account for nearly half of global capacity.

• Thermal & Non-Electric Uses: non-power applications generated 2.6 GWh thermal equivalent in 2024, directed toward district heating (94.1%), industrial heat (4.1%), and desalination (1.9%), led by China and Russia.

2. Growth Drivers & Geopolitical Realignment

• Geographic Axis Shift: over 85% of prospective capacity additions lie outside North America and Western Europe, positioning China, India, Russia, and Turkey as primary growth hubs. Over 90% of construction starts in the past decade feature Chinese or Russian designs.

• Capacity Expansion Trajectory: by 2035, thbe sector projects the addition of 170–200 GW, nearly doubling the deployment rate of the prior 15 years, with China forecast to account for 53% of these additions. Looking further ahead to 2050, global capacity is projected to reach between 560 and 990 GWe [IAEA, 2026].

• Under-Construction Pipeline: globally, 63 reactors currently under construction will add 66.2 GWe of net capacity upon completion. China represents 23 of these active builds, with its national capacity projected to scale from 57 GW in 2022 to 352 GW by 2050.

• Western Fleet Preservation: lifetime extensions (targeting 60–80 years of operation) serve as the primary bridge to maintain low-carbon baseload while new builds scale up.​​​​

3. Upstream & Supply ChainUranium Supply

• Uranium Supply: Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom is scheduled to end its production cuts in 2025.

• Concise & Direct Structure: eliminates repetitive phrasing regarding China's market share and the geographic pivot to Asia across the original bullets.

• Standardized Metric Formatting: harmonizes data points for capacities ($GWe/GW$) and electricity shares into clear bulleted structures.

• Terminology Precision: refines terms (e.g., thermal & non-electric uses, fleet preservation, prospective capacity additions) to suit technical energy synthesis reports.

  

Summing up

 

Although the world's nuclear power gen capacity has been based in North America & Western Europe, with France (generating nearly 70% of electricity ) and the U.S. (generating nearly 1/5 of its electricity and half of its clean energy) accounting for nearly half of the global capacity, 85% of prospective capacity additions lie outside those countries, with China, India, Russia, and Turkey set to take up leadership roles in nuclear growth in the coming years, as seen in Figure 1.  Figure 2 presents the countries committing to nuclear power, showing those w/ the largest number of NPP currently under construction.