Additions are expected to 10-fold by 2030
Annual global battery energy storage system (BESS) installations are expected to rise 10-fold btw 2022-2030, at an average CAGR of 33%, across all market segments including residential, commercial, and grid-scale, reaching 421 GWh of new capacity in 2030 (Figure 1) as projected by Rystad [ESN, 2023]. Global new BESS capacity until 2030 can be viewed in Figure 2.
Lithium-ion batteries will continue to have the highest market share “for some time,” as system costs for four-hour storage, including all system components and installation, fall to USD 200/kWh capacity by 2030, and continue to decline [PVM, 2023].
The ability to provide firm capacity, which enables storage to meet demand during system peak times and to replace gas turbines, depends on the fit btw storage duration and the duration of the region’s net peak load. “Time shifting,” or saving energy for discharge at times of high demand, provides a smaller but still significant portion of the value of storage [NREL, 2022].
Also, BESS designs typically have, on average, short storage duration (much less than 4 hours), but it is expected to grow with the installation of systems with 6 hours or more in the coming years, as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 1: Global new BESS installations (2020-2030)
Figure 2: Global new BESS capacity (2020-2030)
Figure 3: Energy storage duration