Cerrado

by Sérgio Granato de Araújo

 

Goiás occupies a pivotal position where energy, agribusiness, and industry are increasingly integrated. From a technical & economic perspective, grains (soybeans + corn) should be the primary focus, with sugarcane as a complementary, strategic investment.  Grains provide scale, flexibility, and high liquidity in a robust global market.  They can be exported or processed into animal feed, meat, ethanol, biodiesel, and emerging fuels (SAF), making them highly versatile.  This diversity helps mitigate commercial risk and ensures the market remains resilient.

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Corn & soybeans

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Corn & soybeans also integrate efficiently with energy and industry.  Corn can produce ethanol, biogas, bioelectricity, DDG, and hydrogen.  Soybeans contribute to biodiesel, oil, meal, proteins, and SAF. Together, they create agro-energy clusters and synergies with electricity, PtX, hydrogen, and data centers.  Grains generate longer value chains and higher economic impact.  Corn, in particular, drives GDP and industrial multipliers more than soybeans or sugarcane.  Logistics in Goiás, including roads, storage, terminals, and the Ferrovia Norte-Sul, are optimized for grain production.

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Sugarcane

  

Sugarcane is still excellent but more constrained. It requires high CAPEX, dedicated infrastructure, a limited economic radius, and is more exposed to fuel policies.  But, grains remain the more flexible, high-impact choice for Goiás.

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Triple Cropping

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In Goiás, the practice of triple-cropping (typically soybeans, corn, and either beans or wheat) is becoming more common. This intensive cropping system drastically increases the demand for irrigation, as multiple harvests per year require reliable water supply to maintain yields and ensure crop success throughout all seasons.

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Agricultural Frontier

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The Vale do Araguaia, in the west and northwest of Goiás, is the state’s main agricultural frontier for grain expansion, with the largest volume of convertible land.  Key municipalities such as Nova Crixás, Araguapaz, Mozarlândia, Matrinchã, and São Miguel do Araguaia offer fertile soils, strategic locations, and strong potential for integration with agro-industrial clusters.  This region represents the best opportunity for scaling soybean and corn production in the state.

  

At the same time, regulatory risks are expected to increase btw 2030-2040.  The Vale do Araguaia is likely to follow the path of São Marcos and Paranaíba, transitioning from “open” to “controlled” and eventually “restricted” basins.  This will bring progressive water withdrawal limits, freezes on new permits in critical stretches, and stricter efficiency requirements, which must be considered in long-term planning..

  

Challenges & Constraints

  

Meanwhile, Goiás faces some structural limitations compared to other regions.  It has a shorter historical tradition in agribusiness than São Paulo, which can affect market networks and experience.  Water availability & rural energy supply present higher risks, and the value chains are generally less liquid, meaning fewer ready markets for products.  Additionally, initial investments are relatively high, requiring significant capital to establish competitive operations.

  

From 2025 to 2040, Goiás is expected to face structural cost pressures driven by three main trends: the expansion of irrigation, the electrification of agro-industry (including drying, storage, and processing), and the development of Power-to-X projects, bioenergy, and green fertilizers.  Together, these vectors will significantly increase systemic costs while shaping the future of the state’s agribusiness landscape.

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Water Storage

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There is a growing emphasis on water storage requirements in Goiás.  SEMAD now ties new significant water permits to the construction of regulation reservoirs, meaning that water must be captured during floods, stored, and used during dry periods.  This approach ensures more sustainable water management and reduces risks during periods of scarcity.