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Terra

Energy Profile - World

"Are current energy profiles dominated by fossils or renewables?"

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Energy is a key commodity that enables socioeconomic development.  Until now, a considerable amount of energy depends on fossil fuels (around 80%).  But, climate change and, more recently, energy security issues are forcing the world to ramp up to renewables.

Energy transition basis

  

There has been much discussion about roadmaps for the energy transition.  Two aspects, however, must be considered: the new (sustainable) energy model i) should not jeopardize the energy security, and ii) should be affordable.  One major difference btw fossil power & renewables is that solar & wind are intermittent, requiring a form of energy storage.  Also, unlike fossil fuel, renewables (REN) are CAPEX-driven (but have low OPEX).  Additionally, many non-conventional renewable techs rely on critical minerals.

  

Renewables outsprint fossils in this decade

 

Total demand for fossil fuels is projected to peak by 2030 in all scenarios.  Coal is already in decline (since 2022) and oil is expected to fall after 2030.  Total natural gas demand to 2040 is projected to increase under most scenarios, driven by the balancing role that gas is expected to play for renewables-based power generation until batteries are deployed at scale [MCK, 2023].  Figure 1 depicts the net change in primary energy supply by source, showing the replacement of fossil by renewable (basically solar, wind, and bioenergy) from the mid-2020s.

World & Brazil energy profiles

  

A brief description of the main energy sources and the energy profile of countries around the word can be found here.  For Brazil's energy profile, the giant of renewables, please click here.

 Figure 1: Net change in primary energy supply by source (2010-2050)

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Fig 1 woeld - DNV
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